Will the fight be won by submission?

The market favors a win by decision or knockout over submission.

The prediction market indicates an 86% likelihood that the fight will not be won by submission, aligning closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 84%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 5 hours, the market appears fairly priced, suggesting limited volatility in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a win by decision or knockout.
• 2 The probability of a submission win is relatively low at 14%.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, indicating stability.
• 4 The fight's outcome could be influenced by grappling dynamics.
• 5 Time pressure of 5 hours may limit significant shifts in market sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos, scheduled for March 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.