Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?

Market predicts low chance for the movie's opening weekend box office to hit $170m-$180m.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the movie's opening weekend box office reaching between $170 million and $180 million, with a 93% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a lower likelihood of this box office range being achieved, suggesting that market expectations are aligned with a more cautious outlook.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 93%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating skepticism about box office performance.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry of 455 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment before the release.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.