Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?

The market predicts a low chance for the movie's opening weekend box office to hit $180-$190 million.

With a market probability of 7.25% for a YES outcome, the consensus leans heavily towards a NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a probability of 10.75% for YES, indicating a general expectation that the box office will fall outside the specified range.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a fair pricing of the market.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively long at 455 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 External factors like reviews or competition could influence box office performance.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.