Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?

Market strongly favors that the federal funds rate will not reach 2.5% by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 96.6% probability that the upper bound of the federal funds rate will not be 2.5% by the end of 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment, suggesting a consensus against reaching this rate. The market appears fairly priced with a moderate confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market wi