Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Market leans towards no change in Fed rates after June 2026 meeting.

The prediction market indicates a 54.5% probability of no change in Fed interest rates following the June 2026 meeting. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 56.5%, suggesting a consensus on the likelihood of stability in rates. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors stability in interest rates.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI are closely aligned.
• 3 Historical trends show mixed outcomes around mid-year Fed meetings.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate for current market activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 2400 hours until expiry.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statemen