Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ukraine has a 28% chance to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The prediction market indicates a 28% probability for Ukraine's qualification, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher 29.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 800 hours, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a NO outcome at 72%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market estimates.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is efficiently priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 800 hours allows for significant developments.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).