Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Low probability for Bottas to win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Valtteri Bottas winning, with a 99.65% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting limited confidence in Bottas's chances for this event.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Bottas.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a significant lack of confidence in Bottas's chances.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Historical performance and team factors heavily influence current odds.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.