Events › Politics › Democrats win 2028 election?…
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Democrats win 2028 election?

Combined AI YES
31.5%
Avg Confidence
45/100
Combined Volume
$191K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Democrats win 2028 election?…
59.11%
53.50%
AI YES
-7
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$3K
Volume
Manifold
Harris wins 2028 election?…
3.55%
9.55%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$188K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Democrats win 2028 election?…
 59.11% 53.50% -7
45
$3K
Manifold
Harris wins 2028 election?…
near 		3.55% 9.55% +6
45
$188K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 59.11% NO 40.89%
Manifold
YES 3.55% NO 96.45%
Spread: 55.6 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market favors Democrats but indicates a close race.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a tighter contest than market odds.
  • 3 The edge of -7 points suggests the NO side may be undervalued.
  • 4 Confidence level of 45/100 reflects significant uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 59.11%
Democrats win 2028 election?…
Manifold 3.55%
Harris wins 2028 election?…
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