Events › Politics › Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in …
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?(excluding maine)

Combined AI YES
28.3%
Avg Confidence
53/100
Combined Volume
$3K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala …
18.49%
18.72%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
55
Confidence
$2K
Volume
Manifold
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala …
35.24%
38.74%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
50
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Ka…
 18.49% 18.72% +6
55
$2K
Manifold
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Ka…
near 		35.24% 38.74% +3.5
50
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 18.49% NO 81.51%
Manifold
YES 35.24% NO 64.76%
Spread: 16.8 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 Republican chances are perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
  • 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
  • 4 Time until the election is substantial at 7053 hours.
  • 5 Political dynamics may evolve, impacting voter behavior.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 18.49%
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala …
Manifold 35.24%
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala …
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