Events › Politics › Was the first female US President born before…
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Was the first female US President born before 1990?

Combined AI YES
41.4%
Avg Confidence
45/100
Combined Volume
$5K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Was the first female US President born before 1990?…
33.85%
35.35%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$1K
Volume
Manifold
The first female US president will be Republican…
45.99%
47.49%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$4K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Was the first female US President born before 1990?…
 33.85% 35.35% +1.5
45
$1K
Manifold
The first female US president will be Republican…
near 		45.99% 47.49% +1.5
45
$4K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 33.85% NO 66.15%
Manifold
YES 45.99% NO 54.01%
Spread: 12.1 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
  • 2 Pulse AI shows a slight inclination towards YES but remains close.
  • 3 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 45 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 33.85%
Was the first female US President born before 1990?…
Manifold 45.99%
The first female US president will be Republican…
Related Events
Will Trump say "Toyota" this week? (March 8)…
108 markets
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10…
77 markets
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…
58 markets
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?…
53 markets
Will Donald Trump visit Ohio in 2026?…
53 markets