Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in bef…

38.00%

39.50%

AI YES

+1.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$261K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Polymarket

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in bef…

16.50%

18.00%

AI YES

+1.5

Edge pts

Confidence

$93K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US i…	38.00%	39.50%	+1.5	65	$261K	Detail Trade →
Polymarket Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US i…	16.50%	18.00%	+1.5	65	$93K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 38.00% NO 62.00%

Polymarket

YES 16.50% NO 83.50%

Spread: 21.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment leans towards a lower probability of a hurricane landfall.
2 Historical data shows that Category 4 hurricanes are relatively rare.
3 Market probabilities are closely aligned with AI predictions, indicating stability.
4 The confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in the current assessment.
5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in conditions.