Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Market suggests a lower likelihood of a Category 4 hurricane making US landfall by 2027.

The prediction market indicates a 38% chance of a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in the US before 2027, with a higher probability of 62% for it not occurring. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consensus on the lower likelihood of such an event happening within the specified timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a lower probability of a hurricane landfall.
• 2 Historical data shows that Category 4 hurricanes are relatively rare.
• 3 Market probabilities are closely aligned with AI predictions, indicating stability.
• 4 The confidence level of 65 suggests moderate certainty in the current assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in conditions.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.