Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

The market strongly favors that Frank Donovan will not lead Venezuela by the end of 2026.

With a market probability of 99.8% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against Frank Donovan becoming the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, albeit with slightly higher uncertainty, indicating a low likelihood of a leadership change in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors 'NO'.
• 2 The probability of 'YES' remains very low at 0.20%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0.8.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong conviction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6597 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effecti