Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Low probability of Richard Grenell leading Venezuela by 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 0.05% chance of Richard Grenell becoming the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026, with a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a high confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancy.
• 4 Confidence level is high, suggesting stability in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential future developments.

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effecti