| Platform | Market YES | AI YES | Edge | Confidence | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?…
|
9.85% | 11.85% | +2 |
|
$14.7M | |
|
Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?…
near
|
0.05% | 1.05% | +1 |
|
$10.6M | |
|
Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?…
near
|
3.55% | 7.55% | +2 |
|
$2M | |
|
Manifold
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?…
near
|
13.54% | 19.42% | +5 |
|
$173K | |
|
Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?…
near
|
21.50% | 23.50% | +2 |
|
$121K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?…
near
|
6.00% | 10.11% | +5 |
|
$30K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?…
near
|
40.77% | 37.77% | -3 |
|
$7K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?…
near
|
11.05% | 16.97% | +5 |
|
$2K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan before 2027…
near
|
10.76% | 24.00% | +5 |
|
$2K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030…
near
|
27.68% | 32.68% | +5 |
|
$2K | |
|
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan before 2028?…
near
|
45.77% | 44.77% | -1 |
|
— | |
|
Manifold
Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?…
near
|
31.00% | 38.00% | +7 |
|
— |