Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

54.75%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.75% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?

54.95%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 43.95% -11 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?

71.64%

Market YES

28%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.64% -11 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the United States lose the war against Iran?

71.7%

Market YES

28%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 60.7% -11 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?

58.49%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47.49% -11 pts

50/100

Market shows mixed views on crude oil supply impact from potential Persian Gulf conflict.

Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?

89.89%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.89% -11 pts

50/100

High probability suggests China will maintain gallium export restrictions on Japan by May 2026.

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

83.09%

Market YES

17%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 72.09% -11 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will there be a 'The Streamer Awards' in 2026?

92.81%

Market YES

7%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81.81% -11 pts

50/100

High probability for 'The Streamer Awards' in 2026 suggests strong market confidence.

DLA awards tungsten stockpile purchase contract by Jun 30, 2026 following 2025 RFI?

61.33%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.33% -11 pts

50/100

Market shows a slight favor for DLA awarding the tungsten contract by June 2026.

Will gas prices continue to get higher because of the war

87.87%

Market YES

12%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.87% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the official Farcaster client (formerly Warpcast) permanently cease as a social media platform by Dec 31, 2026?

50.75%

Market YES

49%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 39.75% -11 pts

55/100

Market shows a near-even split on the future of Farcaster by 2026.

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

81.62%

Market YES

18%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 70.62% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will another Iranian official be killed

89.36%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 78.36% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?

55%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

74.75%

Market YES

25%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63.75% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?

74%

Market YES

26%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 63% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Should the world ban nuclear weapons?

59.02%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.02% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

62.69%

Market YES

37%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.69% -11 pts

50/100

There is a 62.69% chance Gaza will be in the news in 2026 according to current trends.

Forever Market for Daily Rewards

50.08%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 39.08% -11 pts

40/100

Market shows a slight preference for a NO outcome in geopolitics.

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2026?

79%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 68% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)

93.91%

Market YES

6%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.91% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?

60.95%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.95% -11 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?

65.73%

Market YES

34%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.73% -11 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?

63.81%

Market YES

36%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.81% -11 pts

45/100

Market shows a higher probability for a second Asian language novel winning a Hugo by 2030.

🌍 Geopolitics Markets