Markets / Geopolitics / Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires in 936 days OPEN

Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?

71.64%
Market YES
28.36%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
60.64%
AI YES
45
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: -11 pts

Market leans towards Israel being rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief that Israel will be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028, with a 71.64% chance of a YES outcome. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a more cautious outlook at 60.64%, reflecting uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment favors a positive rating for Israel.
  • 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities indicates uncertainty.
  • 3 Historical trends show fluctuating ratings for Israel by Freedom House.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears moderate, reflecting cautious investor interest.
  • 5 Time until expiry suggests potential for evolving geopolitical dynamics.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Changes in Israel's domestic policies affecting civil liberties
Significant geopolitical events impacting Israel's international relations
Shifts in Freedom House's evaluation criteria or methodology
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $491
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2028
Status Open
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