US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Market indicates low probability of US forces entering Iran by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 26.5% chance for US forces to enter Iran by the end of March, with a stronger consensus against this outcome at 73.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a stable outlook with minimal expected shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a relatively stable geopolitical landscape.
• 3 Historical context suggests low likelihood of direct military engagement.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 283 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.