Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

The market strongly predicts an Iranian strike on Israel on March 4.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability of Iran striking Israel on March 4, with Pulse AI suggesting a slightly lower probability of 94%. The significant edge of -6 for the NO side indicates that it may be undervalued, suggesting potential for market adjustment. Confidence in this prediction is high at 90 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment for a strike on March 4.
• 2 Pulse AI's probability suggests a slight chance of no strike.
• 3 The NO side appears to be undervalued by 6 points.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong market conviction.
• 5 Potential geopolitical developments could shift market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other