Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?

The market strongly predicts an Iranian strike on Israel on March 8.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 94%, there is a strong consensus on this outcome. However, the NO side appears undervalued by 6 points, indicating potential market overconfidence in the YES prediction.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a strike.
• 2 The high confidence level suggests strong belief in the prediction.
• 3 The NO side's undervaluation may indicate a potential market correction.
• 4 Current geopolitical tensions are a key driver of this prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the forecast.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other