Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?

High probability suggests China will maintain gallium export restrictions on Japan by May 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that China will continue its gallium export restrictions targeting Japan, with a probability of 89.89%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a lower probability of 78.89%, reflecting some uncertainty. The edge score of -11 suggests insufficient data for a more confident assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors continued restrictions.
• 2 Geopolitical tensions may influence export policies.
• 3 Historical context shows fluctuating trade relations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears moderate, affecting bet sizes.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 1249 hours until expiry.