Events › Politics › Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republ…
Politics 1 platform 3 markets

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Combined AI YES
31%
Avg Confidence
45/100
Combined Volume
$1K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
23.84%
27.34%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
22.71%
26.21%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
35.86%
39.36%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go b…
 23.84% 27.34% +3.5
45
—
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go b…
 22.71% 26.21% +3.5
45
—
Manifold
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go b…
 35.86% 39.36% +3.5
45
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 23.84% NO 76.16%
Manifold
YES 22.71% NO 77.29%
Manifold
YES 35.86% NO 64.14%
Spread: 13.2 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment favors Trump's favorability remaining above 50%.
  • 2 Market shows a significant NO bias with 76.16% probability.
  • 3 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 27.34%.
  • 4 Confidence level of 45/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 23.84%
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
Manifold 22.71%
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
Manifold 35.86%
Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below …
Related Events
Will Trump say "Toyota" this week? (March 8)…
108 markets
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10…
77 markets
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…
58 markets
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?…
53 markets
Will Donald Trump visit Ohio in 2026?…
53 markets