Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of…

18.80%

21.80%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$3K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end o…

10.03%

13.36%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$3K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?…

32.00%

37.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027…

14.65%

19.65%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the e…	18.80%	21.80%	+3	50	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by … near	10.03%	13.36%	+3	50	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of … near	32.00%	37.00%	+5	45	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of… near	14.65%	19.65%	+5	45	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 18.80% NO 81.20%

Manifold

YES 10.03% NO 89.97%

Manifold

YES 32.00% NO 68.00%

Manifold

YES 14.65% NO 85.35%

Spread: 22 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 81.2%.
2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 21.8%.
3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 42000 hours, allowing for potential developments.