Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?

Market shows low probability for Musk creating a Manifold market by 2030.

The prediction market indicates an 18.80% chance that Elon Musk will create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030, with a stronger consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 81.2%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 21.8%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 81.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 21.8%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 42000 hours, allowing for potential developments.