Events › Geopolitics › Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi …
Geopolitics 1 platform 2 markets

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Combined AI YES
53.5%
Avg Confidence
58/100
Combined Volume
$3K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive …
50.00%
46.51%
AI YES
-3
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$2K
Volume
Manifold
Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still be a…
72.09%
61.09%
AI YES
-11
Edge pts
55
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be a…
 50.00% 46.51% -3
60
$2K
Manifold
Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still…
near 		72.09% 61.09% -11
55
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 50.00% NO 50.00%
Manifold
YES 72.09% NO 27.91%
Spread: 22.1 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment is highly polarized with no clear consensus.
  • 2 Market probabilities indicate a balanced risk perception.
  • 3 The edge of -3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level at 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry of 1680 hours allows for potential shifts in dynamics.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 50.00%
Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive …
Manifold 72.09%
Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still be a…
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