Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Platform Comparison

Polymarket

Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?…

97.35%

61.40%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$1.1M

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will the DHS partial shutdown end by April 15, 2026?…

23.28%

23.21%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$2K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Polymarket Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?…	97.35%	61.40%	0	75	$1.1M	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will the DHS partial shutdown end by April 15, 2026?… near	23.28%	23.21%	+3	60	$2K	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Polymarket

YES 97.35% NO 2.65%

Manifold

YES 23.28% NO 76.72%

Spread: 74.1 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current market probability stands at 61.4% for a resolution after March 31, 2026.
2 The confidence level is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
3 No significant edge indicates the market is fairly priced.
4 Time to expiry is 527 hours, allowing for potential developments.
5 Sentiment is leaning towards a positive resolution of the shutdown.