Events › Politics › Will the party that wins the 2024 US presiden…
Politics 1 platform 3 markets

Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election

Combined AI YES
45.9%
Avg Confidence
42/100
Combined Volume
$1K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election w…
39.92%
40.52%
AI YES
+1.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$1K
Volume
Manifold
Will the party that wins the 2024 USA election win in 2028?…
42.00%
45.50%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
40
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will the party that loses the 2024 USA election win in 2028?…
58.76%
52.26%
AI YES
-6.5
Edge pts
40
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential elect…
 39.92% 40.52% +1.5
45
$1K
Manifold
Will the party that wins the 2024 USA election win in 2…
near 		42.00% 45.50% +3.5
40
—
Manifold
Will the party that loses the 2024 USA election win in …
near 		58.76% 52.26% -6.5
40
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 39.92% NO 60.08%
Manifold
YES 42.00% NO 58.00%
Manifold
YES 58.76% NO 41.24%
Spread: 18.8 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability favors a NO outcome at 60.98%.
  • 2 Pulse AI probability closely matches market sentiment at 59.48%.
  • 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 24843 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 3 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 39.92%
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election w…
Manifold 42.00%
Will the party that wins the 2024 USA election win in 2028?…
Manifold 58.76%
Will the party that loses the 2024 USA election win in 2028?…
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