Events › Politics › Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's se…
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Combined AI YES
38.7%
Avg Confidence
45/100
Combined Volume
$292K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?…
57.00%
53.42%
AI YES
-7
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$281K
Volume
Manifold
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second te…
18.00%
24.00%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$11K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?…
 57.00% 53.42% -7
45
$281K
Manifold
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s seco…
near 		18.00% 24.00% +6
45
$11K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 57.00% NO 43.00%
Manifold
YES 18.00% NO 82.00%
Spread: 39 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment leans towards a recession likelihood.
  • 2 The NO side appears undervalued by 7 points.
  • 3 Market confidence is relatively low at 45/100.
  • 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in economic data.
  • 5 Divergence between market and AI probabilities suggests uncertainty.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 57.00%
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?…
Manifold 18.00%
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second te…
Related Events
Will Trump say "Toyota" this week? (March 8)…
108 markets
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10…
77 markets
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…
58 markets
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?…
53 markets
Will Donald Trump visit Ohio in 2026?…
53 markets