Events › Politics › Will there be a UK General Election in 2029?…
Politics 1 platform 4 markets

Will there be a UK General Election in 2029?

Combined AI YES
30.4%
Avg Confidence
43/100
Combined Volume
$0K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2029?…
60.20%
51.20%
AI YES
-9
Edge pts
40
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2026?…
8.24%
17.00%
AI YES
+8
Edge pts
50
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2028?…
27.56%
31.06%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
40
Confidence
—
Volume
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2027?…
17.86%
25.86%
AI YES
+8
Edge pts
40
Confidence
—
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2029?…
 60.20% 51.20% -9
40
—
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2026?…
near 		8.24% 17.00% +8
50
—
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2028?…
near 		27.56% 31.06% +3.5
40
—
Manifold
Will there be a UK General Election in 2027?…
near 		17.86% 25.86% +8
40
—
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 60.20% NO 39.80%
Manifold
YES 8.24% NO 91.76%
Manifold
YES 27.56% NO 72.44%
Manifold
YES 17.86% NO 82.14%
Spread: 52 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market probability for a 2026 election is low at 9%.
  • 2 Pulse AI suggests a higher probability at 17%, indicating some divergence.
  • 3 Market confidence is moderate at 50/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 4 The edge of 8 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
  • 5 Time to expiry is significant at 6782 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 4 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 60.20%
Will there be a UK General Election in 2029?…
Manifold 8.24%
Will there be a UK General Election in 2026?…
Manifold 27.56%
Will there be a UK General Election in 2028?…
Manifold 17.86%
Will there be a UK General Election in 2027?…
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