Events › Politics › Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at …
Politics 1 platform 2 markets

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Combined AI YES
17.3%
Avg Confidence
48/100
Combined Volume
$12K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his …
16.53%
23.16%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$8K
Volume
Manifold
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his secon…
8.64%
12.04%
AI YES
+6
Edge pts
50
Confidence
$5K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of…
 16.53% 23.16% +6
45
$8K
Manifold
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his …
near 		8.64% 12.04% +6
50
$5K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 16.53% NO 83.47%
Manifold
YES 8.64% NO 91.36%
Spread: 7.9 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 93.96%.
  • 2 AI model predicts a higher likelihood for YES at 12.04%.
  • 3 The edge suggests YES may be undervalued by 6 points.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, indicating uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 24808 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 2 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 16.53%
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his …
Manifold 8.64%
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his secon…
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