Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

532 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
Most Markets Soonest Most Volume
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026
59.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Apple adds MCP support before June 8, 2026?
25.7%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?
34.1%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030?
61.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?
66%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?
42%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
In five years, will there be more AI compute launched to space each year than the total amount of AI compute on Earth?
4%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI do Ambiguous Thing by Far off Time
59.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.
12.1%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?
23.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $11K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
33%
Avg YES
Manifold $6K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
14.4%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?
34%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?
11.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will the OpenAI GPT Store (or equivalent “AI App Store”) launch before August 1, 2026?
85%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Tesla trade above $500 in 2026?
17.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
67.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?
20%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
50.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $9K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?
50%
Avg YES
Manifold $9K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?
54.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?
69.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $6K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?
42%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?
24.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $10K
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