Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?

81.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

74%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)

25%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Nvidia stock close between $170.00 and $200.00 for the whole year?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $15K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

71%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?

75%

Avg YES

Manifold $19K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

69%

Avg YES

Manifold $19K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

91.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

13.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

84.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

97.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?

26.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Big Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026

83.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

24.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

64.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2026?

23%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI or robot be charged with sexual assault or another sexual crime before the end of 2026?

5.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026

15.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

71.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

41.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

71.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

26.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $104K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI resolve this market yes?

51.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

19.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K