Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

532 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
Most Markets Soonest Most Volume
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?
12%
Avg YES
Manifold $10K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?
31.4%
Avg YES
Manifold $36K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?
29.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?
37.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $91K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Anthropic Claude remain in the top 10 free apps on Apple App Store for 7+ consecutive days in March 2026?
89.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
30.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $31K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
New Claude tier above Max 20x before 2027?
39.3%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company
70%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
48.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $8K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
63.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
59.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $7K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
25%
Avg YES
Manifold $7K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?
89.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
10.7%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
9.3%
Avg YES
Manifold $40K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
62%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?
59.1%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
15.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?
42%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?
4.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $15K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
25.3%
Avg YES
Manifold $16K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
5.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
16.5%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?
69%
Avg YES
Manifold
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