Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

532 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
Most Markets Soonest Most Volume
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
23.6%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will a major tech CEO step down before 2027?
71%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027
81.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
56.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $11K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will I get a job at an AI lab within before April 2026?
14%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?
20.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $7K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?
72.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
42.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
24%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will the Catholic Church take an unambiguous stand against AI within 2030?
35.5%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?
45%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will I have any critical disengagements driving 2000 miles on Tesla FSD v14?
9.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040?
19.3%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
61%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?
40.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?
9.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
17%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?
13.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?
48%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?
78.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
4.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $29K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?
22.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026
27.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026
4.4%
Avg YES
Manifold $11K
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