Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

532 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
Most Markets Soonest Most Volume
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
83.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $17K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
41.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
30.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
17.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $18K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?
38.3%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?
60%
Avg YES
Manifold $1K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
86.1%
Avg YES
Manifold $7K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
6%
Avg YES
Manifold $6K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?
78.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $55K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?
93%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?
12.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
The Catholic Church releases a religious LLM before June 2026
4.4%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will ai take over in 5 years?
20.6%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Google still feature the I'm Feeling Lucky button in some form at the end of 2027?
60.8%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
77.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $20K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
16.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $19K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?
35.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
47%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will my name or photo appear in a news article about the Stop AI protest within a month?
55.1%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?
20%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
14%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?
20.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?
31.1%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
9.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
14 15 16 17 18 19 20