Event Intelligence

The same real-world event, tracked across every prediction platform. Compare Polymarket vs Manifold odds on identical questions.

532 canonical events • Updated every sync cycle
All 🗳️ Politics ⚽ Sports ₿ Crypto 🤖 AI & Tech 💰 Business & Finance 🌍 Geopolitics 🔬 Science & Health 🎬 Entertainment 🔮 Other
Most Markets Soonest Most Volume
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will The Convergence (AI agent religion) have at least 5 registered members by April 25, 2026?
33.5%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Judge Lin grant a preliminary injunction in Anthropic v. DoW?
98.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $7K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say?
84.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $2K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
33%
Avg YES
Manifold $12K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
OpenAI or Anthropic 2028 revenue at $3T+
11%
Avg YES
Manifold $8K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?
40.1%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Is Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
19%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?
3.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026?
1.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $10K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
13.5%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?
6.9%
Avg YES
Manifold $43K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI races: NC-01 AI super PAC spending after the primary?
50%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?
14.3%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?
21.2%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?
7.6%
Avg YES
Manifold $5K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Can AI grow corn?
72.3%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?
23.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $3K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
90.8%
Avg YES
Manifold $4K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
32.3%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
will OpenAI announce a brain-computer interface product by 2035?
48%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will Apple ship a Gemini-powered Siri update to iPhones in 2026?
48%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?
13.9%
Avg YES
Manifold
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI Cult exists by 2027
78.2%
Avg YES
Manifold $29K
🤖 AI & Tech 1 market
AI haircuts before 2030
35.7%
Avg YES
Manifold $8K
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