Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

12.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $766K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

50.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $566K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

OKX IPO in 2026?

16%

Avg YES

Polymarket $425K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

93.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $442K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?

2.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $155K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

75%

Avg YES

Manifold $146K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

11.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $127K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

7.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $119K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Anthropic CEO arrested?

4.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket $106K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

6.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $97K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

49.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $90K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?

38.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $96K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Meta acquire TikTok?

4.3%

Avg YES

Polymarket $83K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

18%

Avg YES

Polymarket $69K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

2.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $59K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

20%

Avg YES

Polymarket $18K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

ChatGPT Outage by March 15?

41%

Avg YES

Polymarket $11K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

11.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

33.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?

70.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Gemini top the leaderboard?

1.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will ChatGPT launch an "adult mode" before 1 April 2026?

1.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $27K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

97.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

38.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K