Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

55%

Avg YES

Manifold $9K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

SSI/Ilya ship an AI before July 2026?

17.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 2026?

26.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

40%

Avg YES

Manifold $27K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

will deepseek-v4 destroy all other models?

6.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Anthropic's Claude 5 released before 4/20

14.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

54.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $40K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

11.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Generate Biomedicines (ticker: GENB) will IPO before 5pm EST on March 31, 2026

99%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will the openai/openai-python GitHub repo gain 5,000+ net stars in March 2026?

19.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Are we all AI

7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

22.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Anthropic acquired by another company before EOY 2026?

6.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

25%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Humanoid Robot Finishes a Half Marathon Under 2 Hours by 2030

74.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

7.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

41.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?

5.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

13.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

37.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $17K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

67%

Avg YES

Manifold $25K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

88.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?

7.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $41K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will GPT-5 be able to accurately compare weights of lead and feathers?

94.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $9K