Event Intelligence

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

85.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

69.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $34K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

25.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

39.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $40K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will the Supreme Court rule on a case relating to the copyright status of AI model outputs before 2028?

58.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Nvidia below $140 by March 2026?

1.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $13K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

2%

Avg YES

Manifold $21K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an AI religion have more than 1000 members in 2026?

29.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

AI market crash by the end of 2026?

2.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $19K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

14%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

27.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

16%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

11.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $860K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

36.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

27.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028

36.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

31.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?

3.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

24%

Avg YES

Manifold $22K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

48%

Avg YES

Manifold $646K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

76.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $22K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX

30%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

10.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $509K

🤖 AI & Tech 1 market

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

4.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $132K