Event Intelligence

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

47.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

The United States federal gov will institute a Selective Service Draft by End of 2026

11.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

86.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

21%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the East African Federation legally exist by January 1st, 2030?

19.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?

58.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

4%

Avg YES

Manifold $10K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

6.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Poland: Konfederacja more popular than PiS in 2026?

14.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Yuta Stock

95.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?

82.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

60%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

35%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)

1.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $25K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?

1.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will Boeing declare bankruptcy or shut down before the end of 2026?

5.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the Japanese yen trade below 160 JPY/USD at the end of March 2026?

89.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?

63%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

23%

Avg YES

Manifold

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

18%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will US inflation be over 4% for the next 5 years?

1.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $21K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

76.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

💰 Business & Finance 1 market

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

19.3%

Avg YES

Manifold