Event Intelligence

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Manifold Market implement something similar to NFTs before EOY 2028

14%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

If Satoshi is alive in 2025, was (s)he at Bitcoin 2024?

69.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

7.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $45K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will any cryptocurrency have a higher market cap than Bitcoin on Jan. 1st, 2030?

11.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will something happen in 2026?

70%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will there be something NON Human that can talk or understand humans in tonight's movie? (March 9, 2026)

74%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

68.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission?

13.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $25K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

50%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will bitcoin's price go below $40,000 at any point during 2026?

27%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

10.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

52.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $73K

₿ Crypto 1 market

New Beethoven work discovered before 2030

28.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by EOY 2027

8.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will there be an analogue of executive order 6102 for crypto, making ownership illegal?

15%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Sam Bankman-Fried launch a new crypto exchange within a year of getting out of prison?

11.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

20.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will either a state or the US government name something after Charlie Kirk by EOY 2026?

89.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will I get it together?

73.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will bitcoin achieve a new ath in 2026

20%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?

38.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Bitcoin be higher than $88,888 at the end of 2026?

37.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

₿ Crypto 1 market

Will Bitcoin (BTC) close at $100,000 USD or higher on 2026-12-31 (23:59 UTC)?

39.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

₿ Crypto 1 market

No token launch by March 31

0.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $58K