Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

9.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $53K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?

88.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

45.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?

41.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Israel enters into a new war in 2026?

45%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Should the world ban nuclear weapons?

59%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?

17%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

20.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

11.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?

43.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

65.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $12K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

83%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will ysl go back to psych ward this time ?

33.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?

23.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will something happen in Iran this month?

6.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a new international conflict start next week?

18%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

0.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?

63.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

On the 12th anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?

99%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)

93.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

56%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

14.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $7K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

18.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $12K