Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any EU country or NATO stop sharing intelligence with the United States by the end of 2026?

45%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China land men on the moon before the USA?

52.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel attack South Africa before end of 2026

5.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?

9.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?

84.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $11K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

5.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

32.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

6.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia join the EU before 2040?

7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

83.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?

10.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?

17.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

66%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

21.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $15K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?

30.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be an end to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine before April 1, 2026?

2.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the official Farcaster client (formerly Warpcast) permanently cease as a social media platform by Dec 31, 2026?

50.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China claim to have discovered life on Mars before 2035?

20%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

35.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

65%

Avg YES

Manifold $29K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

67%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

25.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?

17.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

51.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K