Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

(Iran war) Will my wedding happen?

50%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?

71%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will "Kurdish Rebellion in Iran" article on Wikipedia list USA/CIA as a belligerent(not just allegedly) before 3/15

19.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

DLA awards tungsten stockpile purchase contract by Jun 30, 2026 following 2025 RFI?

61.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?

25.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Roy Cooper run for and be elected Senator for North Carolina in 2026?

90.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

36.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Israel wins Eurovision 2026?

8.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?

20%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

63.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Map Handicap: THUNDER dOWNUNDER (-1.5) vs Mindfreak (+1.5)

100%

Avg YES

Polymarket

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

48.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?

9.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

2.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $15K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military service before 2028?

9.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

31.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

38.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2026 (according to gallop)?

22.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?

24.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $14K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

1000 american troops inside Iran by EOY?

41%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?

71.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?

65.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

43%

Avg YES

Manifold