Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?

21.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War

20.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?

17%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?

35.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

17.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $37K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?

60%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the war in Ukraine end before the Iranian war?

19%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?

61%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the United States military fully leave Iraq by the end of 2028?

36.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a direct military conflict happen between Iran and Israel before 1 April 2026?

97%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

11.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $46K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?

42%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?

8.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Conan O’Brien host the Academy Awards (Oscars) for a third consecutive year (2027)?

66.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

62.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?

0.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

64.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $96K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel recognize some other micronation again in 2026?

17.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will GTA 6 win GOTY (Game Awards)?

50%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?

39%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

80.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $13K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?

25%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

36.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $12K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China Move up in the World Happiness Report

83.3%

Avg YES

Manifold