Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

80.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel occupy at least 5% of Syrian territory by EOY 2030?

33%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?

27.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?

32%

Avg YES

Polymarket $337K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by March 31?

28%

Avg YES

Polymarket $337K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?

26.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $29K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

57%

Avg YES

Manifold $36K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Alexey Guzey become a Hero of the Russian Federation by EOY2060?

27.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

14.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will GRU Space land ANY hardware on the Moon by end of 2027?

5.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?

41.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?

20%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Syria and Israel go to war by 2030

54.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel announce the establishment of official diplomatic relations before the end of 2026?

23.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Iran-Saudi deal last until 2026?

40.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Crypto currency retail trading will be banned in the USA before the end of 2027 due to use in war/terrorism/etc

8.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

15.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

OpenAI Announces that its CEO/Leader will have AI components (Software + human or alone) by mid 2026

19%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US military land troops on Qeshm before the end of April 2026?

18.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

82.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

22%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026?

35.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

33.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War

11.4%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K