Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Terminator2 have at least 100 followers on X/Twitter by April 23, 2026?

10%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

62.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $13K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the new Syrian government demand withdrawal from Golan by Israel as an official position before EOY26?

52.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

1%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?

10.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $18K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?

7.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US attack Iran's energy sites before the end of the 5-day pause?

6.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Israel strikes Iran after US announces deal (before April 15)?

8.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

13.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

50%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Jet Lag: The Game return to Taiwan before 2029?

46.6%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?

14.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026

2.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

The war in Ukraine will last until 2028

26%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Public coup attempt against a South American government?

14.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will iran hit USA before june

65%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

29.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

8.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

When the US-Iran war will over?

17.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Vladimir Putin stop being the leader of Russia before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?

68.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will over 5000 Gazans be killed by the IDF in 2026?

43%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will another Russian drone strike Estonia within 3 months?

15.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?

25.5%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Number of operational nuclear reactors in the world has surpasses 800 anytime before mid 2039

26.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K