Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?

9.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?

14.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?

5.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?

45%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?

92.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?

6.9%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?

30%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Free Lottery (white dwarf)

35.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the war with Iran affect USD reserve currency status relative to yuan?

60%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Ukraine will successfully hit Russian Black Sea export terminals in Crimea within a month

34%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia run out of money?

22.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?

54.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

65.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030?

73.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

5.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $54K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

11.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $23K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?

5.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $24K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

19.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $25K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the US and Iran announce a formal bilateral ceasefire or de-escalation agreement before June 30, 2026?

40%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran and the US announce a formal diplomatic agreement before August 1, 2026?

60.7%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?

23.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the Russian cancer vaccine work?

15.8%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

15.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

20.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K