Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Saudi Arabia officially enter a military conflict against Iran by May 1, 2026?T

74%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Córdoba CF vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw?

100%

Avg YES

Polymarket $64K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030?

9.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will US and Iranian military forces engage in direct armed combat by end of April 2026?

62%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?

72.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Falcons Flight in Saudi Arabia win Best New Attraction Installation in the Golden Ticket Awards in 2026?

63%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?

8.1%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?

45.4%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

us nukes Iran in 2026

4.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $5K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Bernie Sanders's remarks not air?

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

[Metaculus] Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

91.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $16K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

87.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $20K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

39.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?

16.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $8K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

68.8%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will I be conscripted against my will into the British military by 2030?

7.2%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will the next military draft in the USA include women?

56.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2060?

32%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?

12.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

13.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $6K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will China have a female leader before 2060?

19.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $3K

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Will Bitcoin hit $95,000 before a formal US-Iran ceasefire is signed?

21.3%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?

45%

Avg YES

Polymarket

🌍 Geopolitics 1 market

Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?

15.2%

Avg YES

Manifold