Markets / Business & Finance / United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?...
Manifold Business & Finance Expires today OPEN

United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?

1.42%
Market YES
98.58%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
4.58%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3.5 pts

Market indicates low probability of a U.S. recession by end of Q4 2025.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against a U.S. recession occurring by the end of Q4 2025, with a 98.92% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, though slightly higher at 4.58% for 'YES', suggesting some divergence in sentiment but overall confidence remains moderate.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors economic stability.
  • 2 Key factors include recent economic growth data and employment rates.
  • 3 Historical base rates suggest low recession likelihood in similar contexts.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for current trading activity.
  • 5 Time pressure is moderate with 408 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant economic indicators showing downturn
Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy
Major geopolitical events impacting the U.S. economy
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $21,071
Liquidity $0
Resolves 27 Mar 2026
Status Open
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